IBM CEO Arvind Krishna remains a strong advocate for global trade and the integration of international talent, pushing back against the Trump administration’s increasing restrictions on visas and trade policies. Speaking at SXSW 2025, Krishna emphasized the economic benefits of globalization, arguing that restricting global commerce and talent flow could stifle U.S. growth.
Global Trade: The Key to Economic Growth
Krishna referenced historical economic studies, noting that:
“Every 10% increase in global trade leads to a 1% increase in local GDP.”
He urged the U.S. to embrace international trade, stating that domestic economic prosperity is directly tied to global cooperation.
Krishna also addressed the increasing pressure to tighten H-1B work visas and student visa restrictions, arguing that attracting the best global talent is essential for maintaining America’s leadership in technology and innovation.
“We should be an international talent hub, and we should have policies that go along with that,” he emphasized.
AI in Programming: Will AI Replace Developers?
While Krishna acknowledged AI’s growing role in software development, he disagreed with predictions that AI will take over programming jobs entirely.
Recently, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei claimed that 90% of code could be written by AI within the next 3 to 6 months. However, Krishna challenged this bold forecast, saying:
“I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%.”
He believes that while AI will assist programmers and boost productivity, it will not fully replace human coders. Instead, AI will act as an augmenting force that allows developers to write more code efficiently.
“If you can do 30% more code with the same number of people, are you going to get more code written or less? History has shown that the most productive companies gain market share.”
IBM’s Stance on AI: A Shift in Messaging?
IBM has a vested interest in positioning AI as a collaborative tool rather than a job replacement threat. The company has invested heavily in AI-driven services, such as assistive coding tools.
However, Krishna’s comments appear to contrast IBM’s 2023 stance, when he paused hiring for certain back-office roles that the company expected to replace with AI.
Krishna compared today’s AI debate to past concerns over:
- Calculators replacing mathematicians
- Photoshop eliminating graphic designers
Ultimately, he sees AI as a tool to enhance productivity rather than a disruptor that eliminates entire job categories.
The Future of AI: Efficiency vs. Knowledge Creation
Krishna also downplayed the idea that AI could achieve true artificial general intelligence (AGI), contrasting views from OpenAI’s Sam Altman, who has argued that AI could surpass human intelligence within the next few years.
“AI is learning from already-produced knowledge. It is not trying to figure out what is going to come.”
Instead, Krishna believes that quantum computing—a field where IBM is heavily invested—will play a far greater role in scientific breakthroughs and knowledge expansion.
AI Will Get Cheaper and More Efficient
Despite AI’s computational demands, Krishna predicts that new advancements will drastically reduce energy consumption. He pointed to research from Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, which demonstrated that AI models could function effectively with far fewer computing resources.
“AI will use less than 1% of the energy it consumes today,” he predicted, thanks to emerging efficiency techniques.
Key Takeaways from IBM’s AI and Global Trade Vision
- Global Trade is Essential for U.S. Economic Growth – Restricting trade and visas will hurt innovation and productivity.
- AI Will Not Replace Programmers – AI will assist, not eliminate, human coders, driving efficiency and market growth.
- Quantum Computing, Not AI, Will Drive New Scientific Discoveries – AI analyzes existing knowledge but doesn’t generate new groundbreaking insights.
- AI Will Become More Energy-Efficient – Emerging techniques will significantly reduce AI’s carbon footprint and computing demands.
As the AI race continues, IBM’s positioning suggests that hybrid intelligence—human and AI collaboration—will define the future of technology and work.
